The first morning of the Canada trade war

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On Friday night, trade talks between the US and Canada collapsed. On Saturday morning, 50 percent tariffs went into effect on $20 billion worth of Canadian products, everything from dairy and alcohol to cement and hockey equipment. Canadian prime minister Mark Carney announced the breakdown himself on Friday night saying: "last minute changes in the US proposed terms were unfair, uneconomic, and called into question the reliability of any deal. As a result, this evening, I have decided to suspend trade negotiations with the US and have directed Canada's negotiators to return to Ottawa." He promised Canada would match the tariffs "dollar for dollar to protect our workers and our businesses" beginning September 8.

Let's look at the communications choreography. Speaking first was Candace Laing of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, the country's largest business association, calling the outcome a "body blow to North American competitiveness." She translated the tariff's downstream impact to small exporters: "looking at your orders, your payroll and your employees and asking what you can still afford." Dan Kelly, head of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business, which speaks for roughly 100,000 small and mid-sized firms said that 40 percent of small exporters sell items on the new tariff list, and some members say it will kill their businesses. The others who made public comments were Lana Payne who leads Unifor, Canada's largest private-sector union, and Bea Bruske president of the Canadian Labour Congress, the umbrella group for unions representing some three million workers and both backed Carney's walkout. (Disclosure: Laing and Payne sit on Carney's Canada–US advisory committee so that speed is by design)

Two trade associations, two unions, zero companies.

The American side of the border has so far run the same play. The Business Roundtable, the association of America's biggest-company CEOs, warned that tariffs and retaliation risk "raising costs for American businesses and families" and urged both governments back to the table. The companies themselves? Corporate Canada was as quiet as corporate America; I couldn't find a statement from a single one on either side of the border.

Which makes sense, because the price of speaking as a company in this trade war is well documented. When word got out last year that Amazon might show shoppers what tariffs added to prices at checkout, the White House called it "a hostile and political act," Trump called Bezos personally, and the idea died pretty much immediately. An association carries none of that exposure: no stock price to hit, no product to single out by name, no CEO who needs Washington's goodwill next quarter. It can also publish what no company would ever willingly volunteer; Kelly's 40-percent figure exists because CFIB surveyed thousands of small firms that would never disclose that individually.

So here's the Monday agenda if you're American with Canadian exposure. Know your number; yes sales, but also employees and operations, because your exposure may be people, not revenue. Have messaging ready for your Canadian workforce and write assuming that whatever you send leaks; an internal memo about tariffs is newsworthy. And call your trade association this week to find out what it's prepared to say on the industry's behalf. One thing not to bother drafting is a statement telling Canadians how much you value them. They're not listening to American brands right now, they're reading shelf tags. The buy-Canadian reflex is well practiced at this point, and it will come back harder. If you want that customer, you'll need proof on the ground -- Canadian jobs, Canadian production, not marketing copy.

If you're Canadian, know that the retaliatory tariffs raise your own costs on American inputs, and your customers and employees should hear that from you before the price increases explain it for you. The buy-Canadian wave is a real tailwind. And for everyone, on both sides of the border, know your next earnings call will publish your trade-war number whether you've proactively framed it or not.

Lastly, know that all of this could change tomorrow. Nobody in DC seems to be taking a victory lap, and if we’ve learned anything from this administration, the door to talks isn’t always fully closed. But you should have it on your agenda and start doing the homework now so it holds up in all potential futures.

Workers vs leadership, now playing everywhere

The two biggest labor fights in the auto industry both played out in the media last week rather than at the table and it reflects how the worker vs leadership divide is widening.

Let's start with Volkswagen Group. As you'll recall, in July, the supervisory board voted down CEO Oliver Blume's plan for up to 100,000 job cuts and plant closures. Quick translation for non-German readers: German law requires big companies to give employees half the seats on the supervisory board, the body that approves major decisions. Picture your board of directors, except employees holds half the votes. A CEO can't restructure without winning over some of the workforce he's cutting, and Blume didn't.

On Friday, Reuters published an internal memo to employees in which Blume says "the situation is more than critical." The memo's case is simple and well-formed: VW keeps about four euros of every hundred it sells which is not enough to fund the switch to electric. Its overhead costs run 30 percent above rivals and four German plants won't have enough work to compete in the 2030s. Next week Blume tours those at-risk plants himself, before the board meets on September 4 to make their decision. As comms goes, that's a strong argument, it's precisely framed, and in the right order.

Labor answered through media within hours. Christiane Benner, deputy chair of the same board that votes September 4, told Bloomberg that Blume's profit goal of roughly doubling what VW keeps on every car by 2030 belongs in "cloud-cuckoo-land." Notice what she's attacking because it's not the cuts but the math underneath them. Every number in Blume's memo flows down from that profit target so if she can call the target into question, the rest (theoretically) collapses with it. She also announced labor's red line of no factory closures. So both sides' opening positions are now on the record, in public, and the meeting hasn't even started.

At Hyundai Motor Company, it's the workers. About 40,000 employees walked out on Friday, shutting every Hyundai factory in Korea for a full day and then made a show of calling off Monday's planned strike to give a seventeenth round of talks a chance. So two stories they want to tell: 1) we can shut you down, and 2) we're the reasonable ones. The confidence traces back to Samsung in May, when you'll recall its workers won a government-brokered bonus deal tied to profits with no upper limit and every other big union in Korea asked, where's ours? Hyundai's union now wants 30 percent of net profit.

None of this is new; labor fights have played out through the media forever. What's new is that it's everywhere at once. Mercedes-Benz AG froze bonuses and 33,000 workers took to the streets. Korea's wage fights spread from chips to cars to ships to steel in a matter of weeks. Chinese carmakers now sell about one in nine cars in Europe. Here's the bigger read: workers and management largely agree on the threat whether it's China, tariffs, the cost of new technology. What they're fighting about is who pays for survival. Both sides are shouting because the real audience is government which brokered the deal in Korea, holds VW board seats in Germany, and sets the tariffs in Washington.

This divide isn't staying in autos. Swap China for AI and you're looking at most industries' next few years with leadership asking employees to absorb the cost of staying competitive, employees asking why the sacrifice always starts below the C-suite. When that conversation reaches your company, the outcome will be centered on whether employees believe your numbers. Level with people while you don't have to, and you keep the option of being believed when you do.