The oil industry's record quarter, in the flattest possible voice

The Iran war began in March, and a ceasefire took hold on April 8, but traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below normal and oil prices have stayed high. That makes this the first full quarter to reflect wartime prices, and the results reached income statements this week. Saudi's aramco reported second-quarter profit up about 42 percent from a year ago, roughly 121.5 billion riyals, or $32 billion. ConocoPhillips reported $3.9 billion yesterday, nearly double a year earlier and, per CNBC , its best quarter since 2022. Of course, neither company did anything to cause the prices behind those profits and both had to decide how to talk about them.

Aramco's statement talks about everything except the price. CEO Amin Nasser's message credits "the remarkable resilience of our people and the agility of our business and operations," then lists the infrastructure that kept oil moving while the strait has been blocked: pipeline, storage capacity, export terminals. Read it cold and you'd think the quarter's achievement was logistical instead of financial. The same week, in a TV interview with Al Arabiya, Nasser called the Hormuz closure "the largest oil supply shock in history." So the CEO tells the dramatic story on TV and the calm story to investors and of course neither version mentions the one thing both audiences already know which is that the company made $32 billion because a war made oil expensive.

ConocoPhillips announced a CEO change the same morning its numbers came out. Ryan Lance will retire as chief executive September 1 after 14 years, handing the job to CFO Andy O'Brien, who has been with the company since 1997, while Lance moves to a transitional executive chair role. The release is titled "planned leadership succession," and it says nothing about why this particular morning but it also doesn't need to. CNBC's headline paired the two on its own: "ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance departs as oil producer posts best profit since 2022." A succession announced in a record quarter reads as a victory lap while the identical announcement in a weak quarter reads as consequences. Same facts, different surroundings which is a timing decision someone made, and made well.

Now widen the lens, because Aramco and Conoco are following the industry. Last week Chevron posted its largest quarterly profit ever at $12.1 billion, Shell its second-biggest at $9.8 billion, and ExxonMobil doubled its earnings to $14.5 billion. NPR put the three companies' combined haul at roughly $404 million in profit per day. And every CEO delivered those numbers in the same flat voice. Chevron's Mike Wirth, on his call: "I can't predict when things in the Strait [of Hormuz] will settle down and we'll start to see those flows again" -- the largest profit in his company's history, described entirely as a supply situation. Across all five companies and two different continents, the choice was to present a historic quarter as something that happened to them.

For the investor audience, that's the right call because there is no version of an oil CEO celebrating a war that lands well with actual, regular humans. But here is what the calm quarter doesn't cover: the political fight over this money has already started.

Senators Sheldon Whitehouse and Ro Khanna reintroduced a windfall profits tax bill in March. Five European governments formally called for a tax on excess energy profits in April. Gasoline is around $4 a gallon, NPR was reporting growing calls for a windfall tax by mid-July, and President Trump has publicly attacked Exxon and Chevron for making "too much money." Only one CEO has responded; Exxon's Darren Woods called windfall taxes "misguided policy" and pointed to consequences: "We canceled investments that we had planned for Europe based on the last time they passed a windfall profits tax." You can agree or disagree with him but he does have an answer.

That's the part to take with you into the weekend, because this isn't an oil story. It applies to any company that earns more when things get worse i.e. the cybersecurity firm after a wave of breaches, the generator maker in hurricane season, the drugmaker during an outbreak, the home-security company when crime is up. Your good quarter is someone else's bad year, and sooner or later the public grades that.

Two things to think about:

First, consider the answer to "what are you doing with the money". How much is going back into capacity and supply, what are you doing on price, what are you returning to the people paying you. Then make sure your CEO can say it because the question will arrive at some point.

Second, really audit how your company talks to itself. The record-quarter celebration in Slack, the sales-kickoff hype reel, the internal memo congratulating the team on a great crisis, each one is a screenshot away from becoming the story. A "they were cheering while people suffered" does big damage that big profits alone never do. You don't have to pretend the quarter didn't happen but you should make sure nobody's spiking the football in writing.

Sorry doesn't close a criminal case

On Wednesday morning, investigators from the Seoul Metropolitan Police Agency entered Starbucks Korea's headquarters in Gangnam and left with mobile phones, internal messages, and the planning documents behind "Tank Day", the promotion that launched on May 18, the anniversary of the 1980 Gwangju massacre, where the company offered a line of large stainless-steel tumblers called "SS Tank" with ads telling customers to slam them on the table. The backlash was immediate; the campaign managed to hit two of the deepest wounds in Korea's democracy movement at once, since the slogan also echoed a notorious line from a 1987 police cover-up of a student activist's death. Organizations representing Gwangju victims and a civic group filed criminal complaints in late May against Shinsegae Group chairman Chung Yong-jin and the since-removed Starbucks Korea CEO, alleging criminal insult and defamation under the special law protecting the memory of the May 18 movement. Police say the point of the seizure is to determine whether the campaign was intentional and who inside the company knew what.

Part of why it came to this is that Shinsegae's own internal investigation fell apart.

Three of the five key employees refused to hand over their phones, the planning messages couldn't be recovered, and the audit concluded there had been no deliberate intent - gaps the police have now cited. Prosecutors turned down the first search warrant request in June but by August, one was approved. A self-investigation that can't produce its own evidence doesn't close a story, it just gives the state a reason to open one.

If you've been following since May, you know the repair effort was real and it came from three different places. Shinsegae pulled the campaign and removed the Starbucks Korea CEO within a day. Chung apologized publicly, and a Shinsegae executive visited the victims' families (who rejected the apology). Starbucks headquarters in Seattle, which licenses the brand to the Korean operator, sent its own written apology to the May 18 Memorial Foundation in early June. And on June 22, more than 2,000 stores closed early for company-wide history and sensitivity training. But this raid is a reminder that a criminal complaint runs on its own schedule, and every procedural step from here forward (raid, summons, indictment) puts fresh news in the editorial cycle.

The commercial damage hasn't stopped either. The Korea JoongAng Daily, citing card-spending data, reports that A Twosome Place, a homegrown rival, has outsold Starbucks in Korea for a third straight month which means customers, not just commentators, are still acting on this. And notice how little the company said this time: a Shinsegae spokesman confirmed to AFP that police had raided the headquarters "as part of the ongoing investigation." The company that closed 2,000 stores for a training day in June has, for now, mostly stopped talking. Starbucks in Seattle has said nothing about the raid.

Some of that quiet is smart and intentional; lawyers mute companies under criminal investigation everywhere for good reason. But the external silence makes internal communication even more important here and that part is still fully in the company's control. There's no public reporting on what Starbucks Korea's employees were told on Wednesday, and that's the question to ask about your own company: if your HQ got searched this morning, would your people hear it from you or via a news alert?

It matters more here than most places: Starbucks Korea workers formed the country's first coffee-chain union in July, organized around pay and staffing, which means employees now have their own channel and their own spokespeople for whatever the company leaves unsaid.

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