Today in 60 seconds

  • McDonald's used its investor day yesterday to lay out NEXT, a ten-year modernization plan. It's putting about $8.5 billion of its own money behind franchisees through 2036 and says the average US restaurant ends up roughly $100,000 a year better off. Shares fell 5 percent, the biggest one-day drop in six years.

  • With sales flat and the stock down 18 percent this year, every audience wanted to hear what was being fixed "now." The comms job is making a ten-year story regularly reportable: which numbers to show, how often, so a flat quarter reads as early instead of failing.

  • On CCO Global Watch: Morgan Stanley's deal list is on Instagram and Cracker Barrel's new CEO asked analysts for "a little more time."

How do you announce "next" when everyone wants to hear "now”?

Most of us have had to announce a plan that's about where the company is going, to people who only want to know what happens today. Investors want to know where the quarter comes in, employees want to know if their job changes. The people who have to pay for the plan want to know what it costs them and when they get it back. And the honest answer to all of them is "this takes years," which nobody wants to hear. McDonald's had to deliver that announcement yesterday.

Roughly nine in ten McDonald's restaurants are owned by franchisees, local business owners who pay the company a share of sales and, in most cases, rent, because McDonald's owns or controls the building. So when headquarters announces a new strategy, those owners are the ones who have to fund most of it. And they’d spent the summer saying they couldn't afford it; a survey of more than 100 of them by the National Owners Association, an independent franchisee group, found that 95 percent said their restaurants were less profitable in Q1 than a year before, and nearly 80 percent said their cash flow wasn't enough to cover the reinvestment the company already requires. Add a stock down 18 percent this year and flat US traffic, and you have a company every audience wanted to hear say "fix today."

What McDonald's said instead

Chairman and CEO Chris Kempczinski isn't betting on more people eating fast food. He's assuming traffic stays flat and costs stay high thanks to inflationary pressure, so he’s building a plan that wins customers from competitors and squeezes more out of each restaurant instead.

The plan is called NEXT and it doesn't start with technology or a new tool. It starts with people. On October 5, which the company calls Founders Day, McDonald's begins training more than two million workers worldwide on taste, quality and hospitality, an effort it's calling “Make It Golden.” Tiffanie Boyd, the global chief people officer, told Nation's Restaurant News it's "the largest upskilling effort in the company's history," and to make room for it the company is simplifying operations and easing some inspections in the short term so restaurants can spend the time coaching instead. Then comes the menu changes including better chicken (shorter cook times, better oil filtration, hand-breaded chicken in more restaurants), better coffee, more beverages, with a target of 1.5 points more market share in chicken and in drinks by 2030. Then there is marketing, where the company is slowing its calendar and, in the words of CMO Morgan Flatley, backing away from being "overly reliant on borrowed IP." And then the restaurant itself with a new AI operating system called Arch IQ that tracks inventory, flags equipment that needs fixing, and takes drive-thru orders by voice, with a new restaurant design starting in 2028.

Under all of this, of course, sits the money.

McDonald's will provide about $8.5 billion through 2036, roughly $5 billion of it by 2030, "through a combination of rent relief and capital support." So basically it will charge owners less rent for a while and put cash toward the work. It says that once the changes are in, the average US restaurant should see roughly $100,000 per year in additional gross cash flow, most of which is expected to reach the owner's bottom line, and that an owner should earn back what they spent in about four years. The company's own payback on the same investment is five to six years, according to QSR Magazine's account of the presentation. Owners still have a large bill though; the presentation reportedly put it around $800,000 for a typical US drive-thru restaurant on top of the regular ten-year remodel.

What the day cost, and why it was still right

Shares fell about 5 percent, the biggest one-day drop in six years by AP's count, while Wendy's and Yum barely moved.

This also reflects what a plan about the future looks like from the outside on day one. A CEO who wanted a better Wednesday would have called this a turnaround, promised a number for the second quarter and left the training for a slide near the back. Kempczinski didn't, and I think that was the right call, for a reason that has nothing to do with the stock. You can't ask people who've told you that they can't afford more reinvestment to fund a fix. But you can ask them to fund a future, especially if you fund it with them.

Three things McDonald's did that make a ten-year story believable, and that I'd want any leadership team to copy

  1. The strategy highlighted what it's stopping. Too many marketing pushes for restaurant crews to keep up with, too many limited-time offers, too much borrowed IP. Kempczinski said a version of this on the August earnings call and Flatley repeated it yesterday. A company can't sell "next" without admitting what "now" got wrong and this is the rare announcement that did.

  2. It made the case to the people footing the bill in language they would value. Boyd's argument for training two million people isn't "hospitality matters." It's that restaurants in the top quarter for employee engagement and retention deliver 10 percent more guest counts, 15 percent more sales and 20 percent more cash flow. That's written for an owner who might still be on the fence about whether to release staff for training, not for an analyst.

  3. It dated the first step. Most of NEXT has a horizon: 2028 for the new design, 2030 for the targets, 2036 for the support. But the first thing happens on October 5, in every restaurant, to every worker. That's how you make a decade feel like it's already started.

Where the work is now

Here's what I'd be raising in the room this week, though.

A ten-year story has to be reported on, or every quarter between now and 2030 becomes "still waiting." The announcement gave the destination but not much about what "on track" looks like in 2027.

Which two or three numbers will the company show each quarter, so that a flat spring reads as early vs broken? Pick them now, while the story is still yours, because if you don't, the market picks them for you and it will pick same-store sales.

The second thing is bigger than the investor story.

In October, more than two million people are going to be told the company's future depends on how they treat customers, by a company that also said yesterday its drive-thru AI could save 50 labor hours a week per restaurant. Jill McDonald, the chief customer experience officer, said "some of that could go to the bottom line, some of that could be giving people more capacity." Crews will hear the first half. Before the first training session, someone has to be able to articulate what happens to the hours the machines save, and it can't be "we'll see."

And the number that will follow McDonald's around is the one it chose to publish. Once you print "$100,000 a year" and "four years to earn it back," every owner now has a very easy-to-read ruler, and somebody is definitely going to hold it up four years from today.

McDonald's is going to spend the next several quarters and years being asked whether NEXT is working by people who were told, very clearly, that it takes a decade. That's the price of being honest about time, and most CEOs won't pay it, which is why most transformation plans get announced as ‘quick’ turnarounds and then subsequently shelved, updated or renamed later. The comms job then is to make sure that every time someone asks about progress or status, there's something concrete and actionable to point to that wasn't there the quarter before. So the question for your own next plan: if the CEO tells the truth about how long it takes, what will you be able to show at the end of the first ninety days?

CCO Global Watch

  • Morgan Stanley's deal pipeline is on Instagram. An employee accidentally emailed an internal list of more than 100 deals the bank is pitching or watching, mostly Asia plus EMEA, including IPO candidates and their backers, then tried to recall it. A blurred copy turned up on an anonymous Instagram account. The official media statement provided to Bloomberg said, "We promptly took steps to address this inadvertent sharing of information and we continue to engage with relevant parties."

  • Cracker Barrel's new CEO asked for time, and got it. David Deno's first earnings call yesterday: revenue $849.3 million, comparable sales down 2.1 percent, and a fiscal 2027 outlook for comps up 3 to 5 percent. Shares jumped. The line everyone quoted, "I've been here six weeks, so maybe give me a little more time," was his answer to an analyst asking for a long-term financial framework. Nobody on the call said "logo," "rebrand" or "backlash" so that feels like a win.

  • The week ahead in earnings calls worth listening to. CarMax Tuesday, September 29, before the US open; Micron Wednesday, September 30, the first call since the Taiwan bonus dispute; Accenture and Nike both on Thursday, October 1, Accenture still explaining the federal contracts it lost and Nike its sixth-plus quarter of trying to say "turnaround" without saying it.